The Green Bay Packers were defeated 27-17 by the Tennessee Titans at Lambeau Field in Week 11 of the 2022 NFL season. Sunday features several intriguing storylines, including how severe weather forced the Cleveland Browns-Buffalo Bills game to be moved to Detroit and the Minnesota Vikings facing the Dallas Cowboys as an underdog at home.
What factors should be considered when betting? What are the best bets to help you make informed wagering decisions?
Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks, and Erlan Dolan; fantasy and sports betting analysts Eric Moody and Andre Snellings; ESPN Stats & Information’s Seth Walder; and Football Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz provide tips and picks for the games.
The Cowboys (6-3) face the Vikings (8-1) at U.S. Bank Stadium in what should be one of the best games of Week 11. Despite winning seven straight games since Week 2, Minnesota is currently a 1.5-point underdog. Who are you backing in this game, and how do you feel about the Vikings’ (+450) chances of winning the NFC after the Eagles’ loss last week?
Fortenbaugh predicts Dallas -1.5. How can the Vikings be 8-1 while being outgained by 25 yards per game on average? Simply put, they’ve been extremely fortunate. Minnesota is a good, but not a great, team. Consider the following: The Vikings are 8-1, but they have only outscored their opponents by 35 points this season. In comparison, the 5-4 Patriots have outscored their opponents by a total of 37 points this season. When the record is removed and viewed through the lens of a team’s point differential, the Vikings aren’t as good as their record suggests.
Schatz: I feel like I’m beating a dead horse – a dead horse that keeps waking up and biting me – but the Vikings aren’t very good. With seven straight one-possession victories, they’re really living on the edge. It’s unusual to have an 8-1 team with a negative yards per play differential, and the Vikings are the first 8-1 team in Football Outsiders’ 42-year history to have a negative DVOA. The Cowboys dropped to fourth in DVOA after their loss to Green Bay. The Vikings are ranked 17th. This season, Dallas outperforms Minnesota in all three phases. For a cover, give me the Cowboys.
I’m also not betting +450 on the Vikings to win the conference. According to our playoff odds simulation, that figure is about half of what it should be. The Vikings, who are in line for the No. 2 seed, will be particularly harmed by the recent expansion of the playoffs to seven teams per conference. They are unlikely to win three consecutive games against strong opponents.
Fulghum: I like the Cowboys to win and cover, but I also like the over 47.5. The Cowboys’ defense has recently deteriorated, allowing the disappointing Packers offense to score 31 points. Kirk Cousins always performs better at home, and I believe Dallas’ passing offense will contribute against a Vikings defense that allows 400.2 yards per game (29th in the NFL).
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In terms of the conference, I don’t see the Vikings as a legitimate contender. I don’t think Cousins and a rookie head coach can survive the NFC playoffs, which will most likely be a three-game single-elimination format. I believe Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Dallas are more likely than Minnesota to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.
Marks: I like the Vikings here. I believe the wrong team is being favored here. The Vikings have returned home after a stunning upset victory over the Bills Mafia. They are one of the most balanced teams in the NFL, with Justin Jefferson being the best wide receiver and Kirk Cousins being one of the league’s most underappreciated quarterbacks. The Cowboys are coming off a loss to the Packers, are on their second straight road trip, and will face the Giants four days later on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys’ defense has allowed 60 points in their last two games, against the Packers and the Bears.
The New York Jets (6-3) are a 3.5-point underdog to the New England Patriots (5-4) at Gillette Stadium in Week 11. The Jets are one of the best teams against the spread in the NFL this season, but they are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games against AFC East opponents and have failed to cover in four of their last five games after a bye week. What are your thoughts on the game’s spread and total (38) and who do you like?
My favorite bet of the week is Schatz: Jets +3.5 at New England. Both defenses have been outstanding this season, but the Jets’ offense (19th in DVOA) has outperformed the Patriots’ offense (26th). I know we’re used to Bill Belichick perplexing young quarterbacks, but Robert Saleh might perplex Mac Jones as well. A defensive struggle will almost certainly result in a close game, giving the Jets a good chance to cover even if they do not win.
Fulghum: It looks like a slugfest between the Jets and the Patriots in Foxborough. I’d take the under, which is uncomfortably low, but consider how each team is attempting to win. The Jets are 6-3 because they limit Zach Wilson’s opportunities and rely on a strong defense (see the 20-17 win vs. the Bills). I have no doubt that Saleh and his staff will devise a game plan to counteract a struggling Mac Jones, and Belichick will undoubtedly have something fun in store for Wilson in this road environment.
What are the most important findings of our analytics?
- Walder: The FPI does not agree with the betting market on three games.
- Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos (-2.5, 41.5)
FPI prediction: Raiders by 3.8 points.
This week, Nathaniel Hackett said, “Someone has to win this game.” And I am not the first to point out that this is not true! Putting the numbers aside for a moment, I’m glad the FPI is on the winning side if this game ends in a tie, which would be so cosmically appropriate. In reality, this is a significant disagreement with the market. The most noticeable difference between these two teams is on defense, where the Broncos have one of the best and the Raiders have one of the worst. However, the Broncos’ offensive performance cannot be overstated. With Russell Wilson on the field, they have a -.06 EPA/P, putting them in the bottom three. While the defense difference between these two teams has been greater, offense is more predictable from week to week.
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 41).
FPI prediction: Bengals by 9.8 points.
Even outside of the FPI, I can’t stop thinking about this chart posted by Tom Bliss from the NFL league office’s analytics group a week ago, which I believe still applies. The Steelers were the luckiest team in the NFL at the time, according to the chart, in terms of win probability gained through fumble recoveries, opponent dropped interceptions, opponent dropped passes, and opponent field goals and extra points. The majority of that is not reflected in the FPI ratings, so we should be even more bullish on the Bengals, who the FPI already loves in comparison to Pittsburgh.
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Calif., the Kansas City Chiefs (-5, 52) host the Los Angeles Chargers.
FPI prediction: Chiefs by ten points.
The FPI likes the Chiefs here for one important reason: schedule strength. This season, no team has faced a tougher strength of schedule than the Chiefs, and no team has faced an easier strength of schedule than the Chargers. When we combine that context with the fact that the Chiefs have the best offense in football and have outperformed the Chargers on both sides of the ball, it’s easy to see why the model is so bullish on Kansas City.
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